New IPRIS Viewpoints: Combating Complacency: The International islamist Threat and Portuguese Policy

JULY 3, 2009 -- Over the last few years, several Islamist terrorist cells have been dismantled throughout Europe. London and Madrid were struck by brutal terrorist attacks, causing hundreds of fatalities and thousands of wounded. Nonetheless, and in spite of its geographical proximity and even its social similarity, Portugal is not considered a likely target and the public does not perceive Islamist terrorism as an imminent threat. Diogo Noivo and João Domingues argue that there are a few broad structural and political reasons that support this viewpoint, but there are also warnings and national security vulnerabilities that shouldn't be ignored.


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  IPRIS Viewpoints 2, July 2009

Is Timor-Leste a Failed State?

Timor-Leste displays signs of political, military and social instability, and it is critical to understand if it is indeed a failed state or just, as the former European Parliament member José Ribeiro e Castro put it, \"a state with failings\". The answer to this question will influence the options of the various internal and external actors.
This article begins with a short overview of the nature of failed states -- terminology, defining characteristics and causes. It is followed by an analysis of existing and potential failed states. Since there is a clear link between the nature of the political regime and state malfunction, the subsequent paragraphs will focus, albeit in a non-exhaustive fashion, on a few political, military, judicial and economic aspects essential to addressing the final answer.

  PJIA 1, Paulo Gorjão and André Monteiro, Is Timor-Leste a failed state?

The Dragon and the Crocodile: Chinese Interests in East Timor

The article is structured in the following manner: in the first section the role of People's Republic of China will be considered through the prism of bipolarity: whether the Chinese method is perceived as an exercise of extending soft power, or as a source of what is described as a new "Cold War" with the United States via Australia. In the second section, a historical framework -- based on the tenet that support of the developing world is a constant of the Chinese foreign policy since the Cold War -- traces relations between China and Timor from 1975 to the present. The third section focuses on the foreign policy pillars: trade and aid; the role of the Lusofonia connection will also be analyzed. In the last section, a summary of the most recent facts concerning political and economic relations between the two countries will be provided.

  PJIA 1, Nuno Canas Mendes, Chinese Interests in East Timor

Politics of Violence in Guinea-Bissau

André Monteiro

Guinea-Bissau is making headlines once again for the worse reasons, right before the presidential elections set for the 28th of June. Last night, presidential candidate and Territorial Administration Minister Baciro Dabó and former Defense Minister Hélder Proença were shot dead by the Armed Forces. Both men were accused of planning a coup, based on information delivered by the intelligence service. At least two more were killed and another dozen detained.
ECOWAS has already met to discuss these events. The head of the body's Council of Ministers, Bagudu Hirse, stated that this poses a "new and grave situation" in the country. This situation is anything but new. Political violence as a means of resolving disputes has been recurrent in the past. Before last year's legislative elections, several alleged coup plots were uncovered. The military claim they possess material evidence against the conspirators. However, it seems the government was only informed of the plot after the killings were took place. This raises obvious questions about the constitutional order and institutional functioning of the country. For what is known, these killings were made in an extra-judicial sphere and the evidence is scarce or was manipulated.
This said the same modus operandi of the last years has been followed: unauthorized military interference in political life. Moreover, Baciro Dabó was a controversial and very wealthy figure in Bissau. Some relate his growing wealth with drug trafficking, and it is probable that his death was ordered by cartels over money issues. These connections are very hard to prove. Without concrete evidence, it remains unclear whose interests these assassinations serve.
Security Sector Reform advocators will reinforce their case -- as they ought to do. A military peacekeeping force will probably be waved as a means of pressuring both the government and the military to control and measure their actions. There is also the possibility of postponing the elections. This was already done once against constitutional rules and should be avoided. Funding for the elections is becoming available and even some foreign investment is reaching the country. Guinea-Bissau lies on the line and is not at peace. This incident was another warning shot calling for a stronger international community engagement.
(IPRIS Digest, Vol. 2, No. 132, June 6, 2009).



New IPRIS Occasional Paper: "A Global Security Vision: The Portuguese Intelligence Perspective"

MAY 8 -- "Portugal may be a worthy partner and a well-positioned interlocutor in the Mediterranean dialogue between the European Union and the Maghreb countries -- not only regarding issues such as immigration and terrorism, but also on a broad range of regional problems, including territorial disputes and energy -- and contribute to establishing new relationship arrangements in the western Mediterranean. However, before pursuing such goals, it will be necessary to cultivate a real European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The current ESDP lacks coherent linkage between EU mechanisms and internal security, particularly from the intelligence perspective. This article seeks to offer a contribution to this debate.

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  IPRIS Occasional Paper 1, May 2009

The European Commission 2004-09: A politically weakened institution? Views from the National Capitals

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New IPRIS Viewpoints: Last Chance for Security Sector Reform in Guinea-Bissau

APRIL 16, 2009 -- A decade has gone by since the Abuja Agreements and the Lomé Ceasefire were signed, putting an end to the civil conflict in Guinea-Bissau and establishing a UN mission in the country. The international community's peacebuilding efforts were aimed, as usual, at implementing functioning state institutions, rule of law, separation of powers and a multi-party democracy, all of which would ensure the country's stability and, arguably, its viability. The tentative reforms in the security sector led by the international community have fallen short of success. What aspects can explain this failure?

André Monteiro and Miguel Morgado emphasize that it is important to note that Security Sector Reform can and must continue to be a priority, but is not a panacea for the Guinea-Bissau's problems. The reform will hardly assure political, institutional and socio-economic stability. Instead, both fields are interconnected and depend on each other's transformation to successfully evolve and guarantee success.

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  IPRIS Viewpoints 1