SEPTEMBER 2010 -- The organization is going through its weakest moment in decades of terrorism, and negotiations are a natural step to take, as it allows the terrorist group to save face under the illusion that it negotiates because it wants and not because it needs to.
Is foreign policy an issue in Brazil's presidential elections?
Pedro Seabra
SEPTEMBER 2010 -- Brazil's foreign policy has gained substantial gravitas during Lula's two terms at the helm of the country. Consequently, any candidate's intended plans for the country's policy abroad should be given some much needed focus and dignified attention. As Brazil goes to vote on October 3, it will not only seek a new leader but also a new face and voice to present to the world, a person who will inevitably and decisively shape the country's agenda for years to come.
São Tomé and Príncipe: Heading into political instability as usual?
Paulo Gorjão
AUGUST 2010 -- As soon as electoral results were known, political observers immediately predicted that São Tomé was heading "once again for a fragile government", thus "prolonging political instability". Indeed, the failure to form a government coalition, together with São Tomé's track record, fully supports their pessimistic predictions. Since the transition to democracy between 1990 and 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has had an extensive list of prime ministers heading an equally vast list of governments. Since then, no government has lasted a full parliamentary term, even when they were able to form a coalition to support them, and several governments were extremely short-lived. After 1991, on average, a government has not lasted two years. Moreover, political instability was further reinforced with a military coup in July 2003 and one alleged coup attempt in February 2009. Overall, political stability has not been one of São Tomé's main characteristics.
Russia's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol beyond 2017
Philippe Conde and Vasco Martins
MAY 2010 -- Unexpectedly, and cloaked in secrecy, both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yanukovych, announced on 21 April 2010 a new agreement concerning the extension of the lease on Russia's Black Sea naval base in the Ukrainian port city of Sevastopol, one of Russia's most important military installations. The agreement aims to extend the 1997 lease accord on the Russian base in Sevastopol, set to expire in 2017, for twenty five more years, until 2042, with the possibility of further extension by another five years. In return, Russia will invest in Sevastopol's economic and social development, and, most importantly, will cut prices on natural gas exports to Ukraine by about 30% of the market price, an estimated US$40 billion, according to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Mozambique and an African solution to the Zimbabwe stalemate
Kai Thaler
MAY 2010 -- Mozambique, Machel's native country, may have a unique ability to fill this role. Mugabe has shown himself unwilling to countenance any Western impositions upon him, and only slightly more willing to yield to pressure from South Africa's leaders. Mugabe and ZANU-PF are historically indebted, though, to Mozambique and the Frelimo-led government for the provision of bases and support during the guerrilla struggle against Rhodesia. This gives Mozambique increased legitimacy in pressuring Mugabe, forestalling accusations of imperialist motivations.
Presidency of the European Union: Maghreb as an opportunity for Spain
Diogo Noivo
MARCH 2010 -- Spain's diplomatic relation with the Maghreb is centered on Morocco and marked by a history of shifts between cooperation and conflict. Those conflicts, usually fueled by territorial disputes, are not enough to mitigate the importance that the region has to Madrid. In fact, those conflicts are a reflection of needs and interests that bond the two parties together. After trying different approaches, and as a consequence of the current situation, Spain seems to be reinvesting in Europeanizing its Mediterranean agenda. Spain needs to regain influence in the region as well as to counterbalance France's self-interested ventures. As such, the EU-Morocco summit appears to be a good sign of such intentions.
EU and Latin America: Reviving a Ten Year Old Partnership
Pedro Seabra
MARCH 2010 -- Presented with the upcoming opportunity to overcome the obstacles to a prosperous relationship, the leaders of Europe, Latin America and Caribbean must remember their shared common values and principles, the lessons from the past and the possibilities for the future, in order to create a long-lasting and stable political climate for both societies, as well as to face the diverse problems that stand in the way of a common and sustainable development. More than the usual photo-ops, political declarations or legitimate concerns, the two parties must come together -- bearing in mind the Rio legacy as well as the new world challenges -- so as to put in place concrete and substantial measures that will allow the integral and complete fulfillment of this bi-regional partnership.
FEBRUARY 2010 -- In August 2006, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's deputy chief, announced that the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) had joined his organization, an alliance later confirmed by GSPC who adopted a new name: Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In a speech broadcasted by al-Qaeda's media wing as-Sahab, Zawahiri said "we pray to Allah that this [alliance] would be a thorn in the neck of the American and French crusaders and their allies, and an arrow in the heart of the French traitors and apostates". To understand AQIM's motivations and mission, it is necessary to look at its evolution and also to try to grasp its current operational scope. This in turn requires an examination of the context surrounding political relations between Europe and the Sahel region -- the latter being the breeding ground and base of AQIM.
FEBRUARY 2010 -- Although UNASUR currently gathers the focus and expectations of the entire continent, South America should be accustomed by now to such formal entrepreneurships. In fact, since the 20th century, South America has diversified its internal relations and encouraged multiple solutions towards a sustainable development and a peaceful co-existence, though with mixed results. UNASUR's potential merits are indisputable. It envisions a shared and mutual future for nations once considered irreconcilable, and proposes a common regional identity that fosters the external role of South America on the world stage.
Using BRIC to build at sea: The Brazil-China aircraft carrier agreement and shifting naval power
Kai Thaler
JANUARY 2010 -- In the short term, it appears that Brazil will mainly gain international prestige and pride from the aircraft carrier flight training agreement, as well as closer relations with China, while the Chinese will receive the more tangible benefit of a shorter timetable for beginning naval aviation operations once the construction of an aircraft carrier is completed. In the long run, however, Brazil may be the big winner if its assistance to China results in increased Chinese pressure for Brazil's inclusion as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. Regardless of the long-term outcomes, the agreement provides a clear signal to the world that the global balance of power is shifting not only economically, but also militarily, as the large emerging countries of the BRIC group seek to translate fiscal power into force projection capabilities.
Kai Thaler, "Gaining Gratitude (and Ground) in Latin America: The Foreign Policy Effects of Brazil's Honduran Houseguest" (IPRIS Viewpoints, No. 7, November 2009).
